The 2026 Federal Budget Has Been Controversial. So Let’s Talk Practically.

There has been no shortage of strong opinions about the 2026 Federal Budget. The proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax have not been welcomed by most property investors, and the community frustration is understandable.

But whatever your view on the politics, the practical question for homeowners and property investors in Mitchelton, Everton Park, Everton Hills, Ferny Grove, Ferny Hills, Arana Hills, Upper Kedron, Gaythorne and Keperra is this: what actually happens to the property market now?

That is what I want to address in this post. My view on what to expect before and after the changes take effect, based on what I see in the local market every day.

This is my analysis of market conditions, not financial or legal advice. For advice specific to your situation, please speak with your own independent financial or legal adviser.

What Are the Changes? 

The key points from the 2026 Federal Budget for property investors in Queensland:

• From 1 July 2027, negative gearing on residential property will be limited to new builds only. Established properties purchased after 7:30pm AEST on 12 May 2026 will not be eligible from that date.
• Properties owned before Budget night retain full negative gearing arrangements until they are sold.
• From 1 July 2027, the 50 per cent capital gains tax discount for assets held more than 12 months will be replaced by inflation indexation of the cost base, with a 30 per cent minimum tax on net capital gains.
• Gains accruing before 1 July 2027 on currently held investments retain the existing 50 per cent discount treatment.
• New residential builds are treated more favourably under both changes.
• The principal place of residence remains fully exempt from CGT.

What Is Negative Gearing? A Quick Explainer

Negative gearing is when the costs of owning an investment property, including loan interest, maintenance and management fees, exceed the rental income it earns. Under the current rules, that loss can be used to reduce other taxable income, such as your salary. The proposed changes would end this arrangement for established properties purchased after Budget night, from 1 July 2027.

What I Think Happens to the Property Market Before July 2027

A Window of Activity in the Established Market

The transition period between now and July 2027 is meaningful. Investors who have been thinking about selling established properties now have a defined window during which accumulated CGT gains still receive the current 50 per cent discount treatment. I expect a proportion of those investors, particularly those who were already considering an exit, to bring their plans forward into 2026 and early 2027.

For the suburbs I work in, this could bring a reasonable increase in listing activity from investors. That creates opportunities for both buyers and sellers.

Owner-Occupier Demand Remains the Bedrock

Families looking to buy a home in Mitchelton, Everton Park, Everton Hills, Ferny Grove, Ferny Hills and the surrounding suburbs are not leaving the market because of these changes. Owner-occupier demand in north-western Brisbane has been consistent and is driven by liveability, school catchments, transport links and community, not by investment tax settings.

The policy intent of these changes is to shift established properties from investor to owner-occupier hands. In practice, that means the buyer pool for established homes in our area remains active. Owner-occupiers tend to pay what properties are genuinely worth to them, and that supports price resilience.

New Build Demand Will Shift

Investors planning future property purchases will look much more carefully at new builds, where negative gearing remains available and CGT treatment is more favourable. This redirection of investor capital toward new construction is exactly what the Government intends. For established suburbs like those in the north-western Brisbane corridor, this means less investor competition for established homes over time, which could actually benefit owner-occupier buyers.

What I Think Happens After July 2027

Established Properties in Quality Locations Hold Their Value

Investors who hold established property through the transition will likely hold it for longer. The incentive to sell frequently weakens when CGT treatment changes. Lower turnover in established suburbs means constrained supply, which generally supports values in quality locations.

North-western Brisbane suburbs like Gaythorne, Keperra, Mitchelton and Arana Hills have consistently held value through policy and market cycles. Quality and location do not stop mattering because the tax settings change.

Rental Supply Is the Risk to Watch

This is the part of this Budget that I think deserves the most attention, and the least discussion in the media so far.

If investors exit the established residential market in meaningful numbers before 2027, and those properties are absorbed by owner-occupiers rather than other investors, the pool of rental properties in established suburbs shrinks. Less rental supply with steady or growing renter demand pushes rents up. Renters in Mitchelton, Everton Park and surrounds are already dealing with a tight market. Further supply contraction would make that harder.

The Government’s increase to Commonwealth Rent Assistance helps renters with affordability, but it does not add new rental stock. This is a tension worth watching.

New Housing Supply Is Years Away

The $2 billion Local Infrastructure Fund is projected to support up to 65,000 homes nationally over a decade. That is spread across the whole country over ten years. The housing supply shortage that has driven property values in north-western Brisbane is not going to be resolved in the short or medium term by this Budget. Established, well-located homes in our suburbs remain a scarce asset.

What This Means If You Own Property Here

If you are thinking about selling in the next 12 to 18 months, the combination of investors and owner-occupiers both active in the market is a reasonable environment. You do not have to make a rushed decision, but knowing what your property is worth right now is the starting point.

If you are an investor weighing your options, the decisions that are right for you depend on your individual circumstances. Please speak with your independent financial and legal adviser about your specific position. I can give you an accurate local market appraisal to inform those conversations.

If you are an owner-occupier looking to buy, the fundamentals in these suburbs remain strong. Understanding current supply levels and buyer competition in your target suburb is where I can help.

Talk to Me

I have been working in these suburbs for years and I know them well. If you want a straight, practical conversation about your property or the local market, reach out anytime.