Australian Property Price Growth Forecast for 2026: Ray White Analysis

Summary of Ray White Property Outlook 2026 Report – Prediction 2: Price Growth

Ray White Group Chief Economist Nerida Conisbee predicts that Australian property price growth will continue through 2026 but is expected to moderate by mid-year, according to the firm’s Property Outlook 2026 Report.

Current Market Momentum

Stronger Than Expected Performance

The Australian housing market has entered 2026 with significantly more momentum than most experts anticipated a year ago. Double-digit annual growth has already returned ahead of schedule, driven by a persistent imbalance between supply and demand, renewed confidence in major capital cities, and strong performances across regional and lifestyle markets.

According to Ray White’s analysis, the sustainability of this pace into 2026 depends heavily on two key factors:

• The interest rate trajectory (now looking less favorable for cuts)
• The speed at which construction costs continue to moderate

Broadening Recovery Across Markets

Late Bloomers Join the Upswing

The report notes that through late 2025, the recovery has broadened well beyond early outperformers. Two markets that were initially slow to join the upswing have now firmly entered growth territory:

• Melbourne: Has finally surpassed its previous peak, supported by improving affordability and returning population flows
• Darwin: Experiencing a sharp rebound reflecting chronic listing shortages and high investor demand

These late-cycle improvements, according to Conisbee, highlight a national market that is increasingly synchronized, even though individual city drivers differ.

Premium Market Resurgence

High-End Properties Return to Growth

Ray White’s data shows premium markets have re-entered the growth picture after several years of absence. Key findings include:

• Brisbane: Remains one of the most consistent performers across inner-city markets
• Sydney’s prestige suburbs: Once absent from national growth rankings for several years, now showing meaningful price gains as prestige buyers return following earlier rate cuts
• Perth: Continuing an extraordinary run with suburbs such as Cottesloe-Claremont leading national dollar-value growth for a second consecutive year, underpinned by population inflows and Western Australia’s strong economy

Lifestyle Markets Maintain Strength

Gold Coast Surpasses Sydney in Unit Prices

Perhaps most dramatically, the report highlights the Gold Coast as a standout performer where unit prices have climbed so rapidly they now sit above Sydney’s—a development that would have seemed implausible just a few years ago.

According to Ray White’s analysis, this growth is driven by:

• Strong migration patterns
• Sustained investor activity
• A wave of high-end coastal development

The region is expected to remain undersupplied well into 2026, even as construction costs ease from their peaks.

Affordable Segment Leads Growth

First Home Buyer Scheme Impact

The report identifies the affordable end of the market as likely to remain one of the strongest performers through 2026, supported by the expanded five percent deposit scheme. The removal of income caps and lift in price thresholds have:

• Dramatically broadened buyer eligibility
• Lowered upfront costs for first home buyers
• Created intense demand in the bottom quartile

Ray White’s data shows affordable houses and units are consistently outpacing the wider market across most cities. In regional Queensland, affordable homes are recording annual growth as high as 13.8 percent, underscoring the intense competition created when incentives collide with limited supply.

While Treasury modeling estimates only a modest long-term price impact, the near-term effects are heavily concentrated at the entry level where stock is already scarce and demographic demand strongest.

The Interest Rate Wildcard

Biggest Variable Remains RBA Policy

Conisbee identifies the timing of rate cuts as the biggest wildcard for 2026. Labour market strength has complicated the outlook, delaying expectations even as other economic sectors soften:

• Retail spending remains weak
• Small-business credit stress is building
• Consumer sentiment remains mixed

However, the most decisive shift is occurring in the construction sector, where cooling activity, shrinking pipelines, and easing wage pressures suggest a major inflation driver is unwinding—a key reason the path to lower rates remains open, though unlikely in the first half of 2026.

Ray White’s Price Growth Outlook

Moderation Expected by Mid-Year

The report’s key predictions for 2026:

“We are likely to move beyond the double-digit phase by mid-2026 unless a rate cut arrives earlier than expected.”

If Rate Cuts Arrive Early: The combination of lower borrowing costs, improving construction conditions, and persistent supply shortages could easily re-accelerate prices.

Without Rate Cuts: The market will continue to grow, just at a steadier and more sustainable pace.

Overall Assessment: Fundamentals point to another year of solid but more moderate growth compared to 2025’s double-digit performance.

Source: Ray White Property Outlook 2026 Report – “Price growth to continue but moderate by mid-year” by Nerida Conisbee, Ray White Group Chief Economist